Nordsjaelland
29%
Fair odds 3.44
FC Copenhagen
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nordsjaelland | Draw | FC Copenhagen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen are rated 85 points above Nordsjaelland (1497 to 1412), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nordsjaelland
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nordsjaelland's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Copenhagen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Copenhagen
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.7. Nordsjaelland score 1.0 a match against an average side (5th in Danish Superliga); FC Copenhagen concede 1.4 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Copenhagen
Nordsjaelland LLDDD, lost 18 rating points; FC Copenhagen WWDDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours FC Copenhagen
Nordsjaelland won 5, drew 3 and lost 9 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NordsjaellandFC CopenhagenNordsjaelland
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
FC Copenhagen
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
7 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nordsjaelland | Draw | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordsjaelland | 22%4.61 | 8%12.27 | 6%17.61 |
| Level | 7%14.22 | 13%7.86 | 19%5.17 |
| FC Copenhagen | 1%— | 3%36.10 | 22%4.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Nordsjaelland wins9FC Copenhagen wins- L FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland 2-0
- W FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland 1-2
- L Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 1-3
- L FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland 3-0
- L Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 0-1
- L FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland 3-1
- W Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 3-2
- D FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland 1-1
- W Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 2-1
- L FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland 2-0
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nordsjaelland's side.