Bayern Munich
Model pick
88%
Fair odds 1.14
FC Koln
4%
Fair odds 24.27
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bayern Munich | Draw | FC Koln | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| Elo model | 85% | 12% | 3% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich are rated 345 points above FC Koln (1772 to 1427), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bayern Munich
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 3 points to Bayern Munich's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Koln's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bayern Munich
Expected goals 3.8 to 0.8. Bayern Munich score 2.8 a match against an average side (1st in Bundesliga); FC Koln concede 1.4 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich WDWDW, gained 14 rating points; FC Koln DDLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich won 7, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Bayern MunichFC KolnBayern Munich
9/10 over 2.5
34 scored
12 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
FC Koln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 4-1
- 5-0
- 2-1
- 5-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bayern Munich | Draw | FC Koln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 60%1.66 | 1%67.57 | 0%— |
| Level | 23%4.42 | 4%24.88 | 2%66.67 |
| FC Koln | 5%19.19 | 2%43.67 | 2%41.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Bayern Munich wins0FC Koln wins- W Bayern Munich vs FC Koln 5-1
- W FC Koln vs Bayern Munich 1-3
- W Bayern Munich vs FC Koln 2-0
- W FC Koln vs Bayern Munich 0-1
- W FC Koln vs Bayern Munich 1-2
- D Bayern Munich vs FC Koln 1-1
- W FC Koln vs Bayern Munich 0-4
- W Bayern Munich vs FC Koln 3-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bayern Munich's side.