FC Rapid Bucuresti
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.52Bookmakers 44%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Farul Constanta | Draw | FC Rapid Bucuresti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours FC Rapid Bucuresti
FC Rapid Bucuresti are rated 77 points above Farul Constanta (1467 to 1390), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Farul Constanta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Farul Constanta's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Rapid Bucuresti's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Farul Constanta score 1.0 a match against an average side (7th in Romanian Liga 1); FC Rapid Bucuresti concede 1.3 (4th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
Farul Constanta WWLWL, gained 7 rating points; FC Rapid Bucuresti WLWWW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours FC Rapid Bucuresti
Bookmakers rate FC Rapid Bucuresti higher than the model does: Farul Constanta 29% against the model's 33%, FC Rapid Bucuresti 44% against 40%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta won 6, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Farul ConstantaFC Rapid Bucuresti
09/04
09/20
10/18
10/25
FC Rapid Bucuresti
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
08/15
08/31
09/06
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Farul Constanta | Draw | FC Rapid Bucuresti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta | 25%4.03 | 7%13.70 | 3%29.50 |
| Level | 8%12.52 | 16%6.41 | 16%6.44 |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti | 1%— | 3%31.15 | 21%4.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4FC Rapid Bucuresti wins- W Farul Constanta vs FC Rapid Bucuresti 3-1
- L FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta 3-1
- L Farul Constanta vs FC Rapid Bucuresti 1-3
- L FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta 5-0
- W Farul Constanta vs FC Rapid Bucuresti 3-1
- W FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta 1-2
- D Farul Constanta vs FC Rapid Bucuresti 0-0
- L FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta 3-1
- W Farul Constanta vs FC Rapid Bucuresti 7-2
- D FC Rapid Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta 1-1
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Farul Constanta's side.