Cerezo Osaka
12%
Fair odds 8.40
FC Tokyo
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.43
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cerezo Osaka | Draw | FC Tokyo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo are rated 108 points above Cerezo Osaka (1437 to 1329), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cerezo Osaka
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cerezo Osaka's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Tokyo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Tokyo
Expected goals 0.9 to 2.4. Cerezo Osaka score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in J1 League); FC Tokyo concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka LDDLD, lost 21 rating points; FC Tokyo WWDWW, gained 47 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka won 1, drew 4 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Cerezo OsakaFC TokyoCerezo Osaka
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
FC Tokyo
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
1 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-1
- 1-3
- 0-4
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cerezo Osaka | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 12%8.64 | 10%10.16 | 14%7.09 |
| Level | 1%— | 7%13.62 | 31%3.21 |
| FC Tokyo | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cerezo Osaka wins4FC Tokyo wins- D FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka 2-2
- D Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo 1-1
- L FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka 3-0
- D Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo 2-2
- L Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo 0-1
- W FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka 1-2
- L FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka 4-0
- L Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo 0-1
- D Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo 3-3
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cerezo Osaka's side.