Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe | Draw | FC Voluntari | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe are rated 56 points above FC Voluntari (1346 to 1289), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
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Home advantage Favours Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe's chance of winning and takes the same from FC Voluntari's.
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Attack against defence Favours Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe score 0.7 a match against an average side (17th in Romanian Liga 1); FC Voluntari concede 2.3 (19th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe DLDLL, lost 20 rating points; FC Voluntari LLLLL, lost 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours FC Voluntari
Bookmakers rate FC Voluntari higher than the model does: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 45% against the model's 50%, FC Voluntari 28% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sepsi Sf. GheorgheFC Voluntari
09/12
10/09
10/26
11/01
08/23
08/28
09/12
10/19
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe | Draw | FC Voluntari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe | 31%3.25 | 4%26.11 | 1%— |
| Level | 17%6.01 | 15%6.56 | 7%13.81 |
| FC Voluntari | 3%33.90 | 6%17.24 | 17%6.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- W Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari 4-0
- W FC Voluntari vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 0-2
- D Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari 1-1
- D FC Voluntari vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 0-0
- L FC Voluntari vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 3-1
- L Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe's side.