Hearts
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91Bookmakers 60%
Falkirk
23%
Fair odds 4.41Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hearts | Draw | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 60% | 21% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hearts
Hearts are rated 77 points above Falkirk (1555 to 1478), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hearts
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hearts's chance of winning and takes the same from Falkirk's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hearts
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Hearts score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in Scottish Premiership); Falkirk concede 1.4 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Falkirk
Hearts LDWLL, lost 28 rating points; Falkirk WWWWL, gained 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Falkirk
Hearts will have had 3 days' rest, Falkirk 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Hearts
Bookmakers rate Hearts higher than the model does: Hearts 60% against the model's 52%, Falkirk 18% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Hearts
Hearts won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HeartsFalkirkHearts
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
19 conceded
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/05
Falkirk
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hearts | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts | 37%2.70 | 6%16.78 | 2%50.25 |
| Level | 14%7.09 | 14%6.94 | 10%10.35 |
| Falkirk | 2%57.80 | 4%27.70 | 12%8.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Hearts wins1Falkirk wins- L Falkirk vs Hearts 2-1
- W Hearts vs Falkirk 3-0
- W Hearts vs Falkirk 1-0
- W Falkirk vs Hearts 0-2
- W Hearts vs Falkirk 3-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hearts's side.