Corum
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.42Bookmakers 23%
Fenerbahce
35%
Fair odds 2.87Bookmakers 53%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Corum: 41% here, 23% with bookmakers; Fenerbahce: 35% here, 53% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Corum | Draw | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Best price on offer | 4.25 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce are rated 83 points above Corum (1616 to 1533), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Corum
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Corum's chance of winning and takes the same from Fenerbahce's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.6. Corum score 1.4 a match against an average side (7th in Süper Lig); Fenerbahce concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Corum
Corum WLWWL, gained 15 rating points; Fenerbahce WLLDW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Corum
Fenerbahce will have had 4 days' rest, Corum 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Fenerbahce
Bookmakers rate Fenerbahce higher than the model does: Corum 23% against the model's 41%, Fenerbahce 53% against 35%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CorumFenerbahceCorum
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
16 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/31
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/25
10/31
Fenerbahce
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
15 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Corum | Draw | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corum | 20%4.94 | 4%27.86 | 2%65.79 |
| Level | 17%6.01 | 12%8.28 | 10%10.29 |
| Fenerbahce | 5%20.53 | 7%13.70 | 24%4.16 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.