Kocaelispor
35%
Fair odds 2.85
Fenerbahce
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kocaelispor | Draw | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 45% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce are rated 126 points above Kocaelispor (1616 to 1491), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kocaelispor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kocaelispor's chance of winning and takes the same from Fenerbahce's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Kocaelispor score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Süper Lig); Fenerbahce concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kocaelispor DWLLW, barely moved; Fenerbahce WLLDW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KocaelisporFenerbahceKocaelispor
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
9 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Fenerbahce
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
15 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kocaelispor | Draw | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 18%5.45 | 4%25.32 | 2%65.79 |
| Level | 14%6.98 | 15%6.59 | 12%8.66 |
| Fenerbahce | 3%33.67 | 6%15.46 | 26%3.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Kocaelispor wins2Fenerbahce wins- L Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce 0-2
- L Fenerbahce vs Kocaelispor 3-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kocaelispor's side.