Shakhtar Donetsk
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33Bookmakers 37%
Fenerbahce
34%
Fair odds 2.98Bookmakers 36%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.67 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce are rated 116 points above Shakhtar Donetsk (1616 to 1500), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Shakhtar Donetsk
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of winning and takes the same from Fenerbahce's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shakhtar Donetsk
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.6. Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.4 a match against an average side; Fenerbahce concede 1.2 (8th best defence in Süper Lig).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk LLWDL, gained 8 rating points; Fenerbahce WLLDW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Fenerbahce
Bookmakers rate Fenerbahce higher than the model does: Shakhtar Donetsk 37% against the model's 43%, Fenerbahce 36% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Shakhtar DonetskFenerbahceShakhtar Donetsk
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
03/12
03/19
04/09
04/16
04/30
05/07
09/10
10/14
10/21
11/03
Fenerbahce
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
15 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 20%5.10 | 3%31.45 | 1%76.34 |
| Level | 18%5.55 | 12%8.63 | 9%11.22 |
| Fenerbahce | 6%17.12 | 8%12.76 | 24%4.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.