Heerenveen
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.53Bookmakers 23%
Feyenoord
37%
Fair odds 2.74Bookmakers 55%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Heerenveen: 40% here, 23% with bookmakers; Feyenoord: 37% here, 55% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Heerenveen | Draw | Feyenoord | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 24% | 37% |
| Elo model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Best price on offer | 4.20 | 4.40 | 1.73 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Feyenoord
Feyenoord are rated 74 points above Heerenveen (1602 to 1528), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Heerenveen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Heerenveen's chance of winning and takes the same from Feyenoord's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.6. Heerenveen score 1.4 a match against an average side (7th in Eredivisie); Feyenoord concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Heerenveen
Heerenveen WWWLW, gained 37 rating points; Feyenoord LDDLW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Feyenoord
Bookmakers rate Feyenoord higher than the model does: Heerenveen 23% against the model's 40%, Feyenoord 55% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Feyenoord
Heerenveen won 1, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HeerenveenFeyenoordHeerenveen
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
13 conceded
08/16
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/24
10/31
Feyenoord
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
16 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 68%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Heerenveen | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 21%4.88 | 4%25.38 | 2%57.47 |
| Level | 15%6.55 | 12%8.17 | 10%9.64 |
| Feyenoord | 4%23.75 | 7%14.49 | 25%4.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Heerenveen wins7Feyenoord wins- D Heerenveen vs Feyenoord 2-2
- L Feyenoord vs Heerenveen 1-0
- W Heerenveen vs Feyenoord 2-0
- L Feyenoord vs Heerenveen 3-0
- L Heerenveen vs Feyenoord 2-3
- L Feyenoord vs Heerenveen 6-1
- L Heerenveen vs Feyenoord 1-2
- D Feyenoord vs Heerenveen 0-0
- L Heerenveen vs Feyenoord 0-3
- L Feyenoord vs Heerenveen 3-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Heerenveen's side.