Monza
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.48
Fiorentina
35%
Fair odds 2.86
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Monza | Draw | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fiorentina
Fiorentina are rated 65 points above Monza (1491 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Monza
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Monza's chance of winning and takes the same from Fiorentina's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. Monza score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Serie A); Fiorentina concede 1.4 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Monza LLLWL, lost 8 rating points; Fiorentina WDLLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Monza won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MonzaFiorentinaMonza
9/10 over 2.5
17 scored
24 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/19
10/23
10/28
10/31
Fiorentina
9/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Monza | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 23%4.36 | 5%19.80 | 2%40.32 |
| Level | 15%6.73 | 13%7.50 | 13%7.84 |
| Fiorentina | 3%33.11 | 5%18.59 | 20%4.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Monza wins2Fiorentina wins- W Monza vs Fiorentina 2-1
- D Fiorentina vs Monza 2-2
- L Fiorentina vs Monza 2-1
- L Monza vs Fiorentina 0-1
- W Monza vs Fiorentina 3-2
- D Fiorentina vs Monza 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Monza's side.