Palmeiras
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Flamengo RJ
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Palmeiras | Draw | Flamengo RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 28% | 33% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Flamengo RJ
Flamengo RJ are rated 23 points above Palmeiras (1562 to 1538), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Palmeiras
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Palmeiras's chance of winning and takes the same from Flamengo RJ's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Palmeiras score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in Brasileirão); Flamengo RJ concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Palmeiras DWWWW, gained 18 rating points; Flamengo RJ WWWWD, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Flamengo RJ
Palmeiras won 1, drew 5 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PalmeirasFlamengo RJPalmeiras
2/10 over 2.5
16 scored
3 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
Flamengo RJ
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
7 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Palmeiras | Draw | Flamengo RJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 28%3.61 | 6%16.86 | 2%52.63 |
| Level | 10%10.09 | 17%5.72 | 12%8.53 |
| Flamengo RJ | 1%91.74 | 4%25.45 | 20%4.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Palmeiras wins4Flamengo RJ wins- W Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras 0-3
- L Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras 3-2
- L Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ 0-2
- D Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras 1-1
- D Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ 0-0
- L Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras 3-0
- D Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ 1-1
- D Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ 1-1
- D Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras 0-0
- L Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ 1-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Palmeiras's side.