Crawley Town
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.71
Fleetwood Town
36%
Fair odds 2.79
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crawley Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town are rated 62 points above Crawley Town (1195 to 1133), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crawley Town
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crawley Town's chance of winning and takes the same from Fleetwood Town's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Crawley Town score 0.7 a match against an average side (16th in League Two); Fleetwood Town concede 2.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Crawley Town WDLLD, barely moved; Fleetwood Town WLLWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Crawley TownFleetwood TownCrawley Town
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Fleetwood Town
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crawley Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 22%4.63 | 5%18.98 | 2%43.10 |
| Level | 14%7.24 | 16%6.23 | 14%7.06 |
| Fleetwood Town | 2%48.31 | 5%20.79 | 20%5.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Crawley Town wins1Fleetwood Town wins- L Fleetwood Town vs Crawley Town 1-0
- W Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Crawley Town's side.