Sao Paulo
34%
Fair odds 2.96
Fluminense
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.69
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fluminense
Fluminense are rated 67 points above Sao Paulo (1426 to 1359), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sao Paulo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sao Paulo's chance of winning and takes the same from Fluminense's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.2. Sao Paulo score 0.8 a match against an average side (16th in Brasileirão); Fluminense concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sao Paulo LDWWL, barely moved; Fluminense WLLLW, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Fluminense
Sao Paulo won 3, drew 1 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sao PauloFluminenseSao Paulo
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/03
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/29
Fluminense
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sao Paulo | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 26%3.79 | 7%14.77 | 2%42.92 |
| Level | 7%13.81 | 18%5.46 | 14%7.37 |
| Fluminense | 1%— | 3%33.11 | 22%4.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Sao Paulo wins6Fluminense wins- L Fluminense vs Sao Paulo 2-1
- L Fluminense vs Sao Paulo 6-0
- W Sao Paulo vs Fluminense 3-1
- L Fluminense vs Sao Paulo 2-0
- W Sao Paulo vs Fluminense 2-1
- L Fluminense vs Sao Paulo 1-0
- W Sao Paulo vs Fluminense 1-0
- L Fluminense vs Sao Paulo 3-1
- D Sao Paulo vs Fluminense 2-2
- L Fluminense vs Sao Paulo 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sao Paulo's side.