Vitoria
27%
Fair odds 3.70Bookmakers 34%
Fluminense
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22Bookmakers 37%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vitoria | Draw | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 28% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.78 | 3.40 | 2.57 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fluminense
Fluminense are rated 107 points above Vitoria (1426 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vitoria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vitoria's chance of winning and takes the same from Fluminense's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fluminense
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.4. Vitoria score 0.7 a match against an average side (21st in Brasileirão); Fluminense concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vitoria LDDLW, barely moved; Fluminense WLLLW, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Vitoria
Bookmakers rate Vitoria higher than the model does: Vitoria 34% against the model's 27%, Fluminense 37% against 45%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Vitoria won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VitoriaFluminenseVitoria
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/08
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/31
Fluminense
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vitoria | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 23%4.37 | 8%11.78 | 4%24.15 |
| Level | 4%23.04 | 17%6.05 | 18%5.47 |
| Fluminense | 0%— | 2%53.19 | 23%4.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Vitoria wins1Fluminense wins- D Fluminense vs Vitoria 2-2
- L Vitoria vs Fluminense 0-1
- D Fluminense vs Vitoria 1-1
- W Vitoria vs Fluminense 2-1
- W Fluminense vs Vitoria 0-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vitoria's side.