Go Ahead Eagles
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
For Sittard
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | For Sittard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours For Sittard
For Sittard are rated 16 points above Go Ahead Eagles (1473 to 1458), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Go Ahead Eagles
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Go Ahead Eagles's chance of winning and takes the same from For Sittard's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Go Ahead Eagles
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.5. Go Ahead Eagles score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Eredivisie); For Sittard concede 1.5 (9th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours For Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles LWLDD, lost 26 rating points; For Sittard DWDDW, gained 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles won 5, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Go Ahead EaglesFor SittardGo Ahead Eagles
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
26 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
For Sittard
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | For Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles | 27%3.66 | 6%17.64 | 3%36.36 |
| Level | 14%7.28 | 12%8.00 | 12%8.39 |
| For Sittard | 3%37.04 | 5%20.49 | 19%5.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Go Ahead Eagles wins2For Sittard wins- D Go Ahead Eagles vs For Sittard 2-2
- D For Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles 2-2
- W For Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles 0-3
- L Go Ahead Eagles vs For Sittard 0-2
- D For Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles 0-0
- W Go Ahead Eagles vs For Sittard 3-0
- W Go Ahead Eagles vs For Sittard 2-0
- W For Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles 0-2
- L For Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles 1-0
- W Go Ahead Eagles vs For Sittard 4-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Go Ahead Eagles's side.