Luton
Model pick
84%
Fair odds 1.19
Forest Green
5%
Fair odds 20.53
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Luton | Draw | Forest Green | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Elo model | 84% | 13% | 3% |
Team news
- Kal Naismith Out
Sports Mole's 'Team News' says Luton will be without Naismith; Harrison Ashby could start at right-back with Isaac Jones moving to left-back. Wilshere's update was given before the scan results, so his status is not fully confirmed.
- Ricardo Rees Out
Forest Green have no permanent manager; Jonathan Gould is caretaker. No other fresh injury news was found, and the only other injury reports found were from last season's tie.
Allowing for this news: Luton 85%, draw 11%, Forest Green 5% (xG 3.13 – 0.67). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, lutontoday.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Luton
Luton are rated 331 points above Forest Green (1418 to 1087), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Luton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 4 points to Luton's chance of winning and takes the same from Forest Green's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Luton
Expected goals 3.1 to 0.7. Luton score 1.1 a match against an average side (4th in League One); Forest Green concede 2.9 (10th best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Luton
Luton DWWWW, gained 26 rating points; Forest Green DWLDD, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Forest Green
Luton will have had 4 days' rest, Forest Green 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LutonForest GreenLuton
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
11 conceded
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Forest Green
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 5-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Luton | Draw | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton | 63%1.59 | 2%44.84 | 0%— |
| Level | 19%5.25 | 6%16.58 | 2%47.85 |
| Forest Green | 3%35.84 | 2%48.54 | 3%39.37 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.