Yeovil
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15
Forest Green
28%
Fair odds 3.59
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Yeovil | Draw | Forest Green | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Forest Green
Forest Green are rated 19 points above Yeovil (1087 to 1068), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Yeovil
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Yeovil's chance of winning and takes the same from Forest Green's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Yeovil
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Yeovil score 0.6 a match against an average side (11th in National League); Forest Green concede 2.9 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Yeovil
Yeovil LWLWW, gained 30 rating points; Forest Green DWLDD, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Forest Green
Yeovil won 0, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
YeovilForest GreenYeovil
6/10 over 2.5
23 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/24
10/31
Forest Green
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Yeovil | Draw | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yeovil | 25%3.94 | 4%25.06 | 1%76.34 |
| Level | 18%5.54 | 15%6.85 | 9%10.71 |
| Forest Green | 4%27.78 | 6%16.45 | 18%5.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Yeovil wins3Forest Green wins- L Yeovil vs Forest Green 0-2
- L Forest Green vs Yeovil 2-0
- D Yeovil vs Forest Green 1-1
- L Forest Green vs Yeovil 2-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Yeovil's side.