HamKam
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56
Fredrikstad
35%
Fair odds 2.88
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| HamKam | Draw | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad are rated 32 points above HamKam (1345 to 1313), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours HamKam
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to HamKam's chance of winning and takes the same from Fredrikstad's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. HamKam score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Eliteserien); Fredrikstad concede 1.9 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours HamKam
HamKam DLLWL, barely moved; Fredrikstad LLLDD, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Fredrikstad
HamKam won 0, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HamKamFredrikstadHamKam
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
27 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Fredrikstad
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | HamKam | Draw | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam | 27%3.76 | 6%16.03 | 3%37.04 |
| Level | 11%8.80 | 15%6.81 | 13%7.65 |
| Fredrikstad | 2%60.98 | 4%23.64 | 19%5.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0HamKam wins3Fredrikstad wins- L Fredrikstad vs HamKam 2-1
- D Fredrikstad vs HamKam 1-1
- D HamKam vs Fredrikstad 1-1
- L Fredrikstad vs HamKam 1-0
- L HamKam vs Fredrikstad 0-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from HamKam's side.