Elversberg
30%
Fair odds 3.28
Freiburg
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Elversberg | Draw | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 44% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Freiburg
Freiburg are rated 117 points above Elversberg (1564 to 1447), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Elversberg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Elversberg's chance of winning and takes the same from Freiburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Freiburg
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Elversberg score 1.2 a match against an average side (14th in Bundesliga); Freiburg concede 1.2 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Elversberg WLWLD, gained 10 rating points; Freiburg WWLLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ElversbergFreiburgElversberg
8/10 over 2.5
20 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Freiburg
8/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Elversberg | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 20%5.12 | 6%16.03 | 4%27.17 |
| Level | 10%10.13 | 14%7.19 | 17%5.89 |
| Freiburg | 2%66.23 | 4%24.27 | 24%4.14 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.