Cagliari
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56Bookmakers 35%
Frosinone
36%
Fair odds 2.79Bookmakers 39%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cagliari | Draw | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.50 |
Team news
- Adam Obert Out
- Alieu Fadera Out
- M'Bala Nzola Out
- Mattia Felici Out
- Riyad Idrissi Out
- Giuseppe Aurelio Doubtful
- Alessandro Deiola Doubtful
- Roberto Gagliardini Doubtful
Cagliari have lost four straight league games; Aurelio's fitness is expected to be assessed close to kick-off, with Rodriguez a possible left-back option.
- Antonio Raimondo Out
- Florian Grillitsch Out
Reports say Alvini will change little from the side that beat Torino 2-0; Birligea expected to lead the attack. Some outlets list Grillitsch as doubtful rather than out.
Allowing for this news: Cagliari 36%, draw 26%, Frosinone 38% (xG 1.41 – 1.47). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: unionesarda.it, unionesarda.it, cagliaricalcio-news.it, cagliaricalcio.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Frosinone
Frosinone are rated 68 points above Cagliari (1520 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cagliari
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cagliari's chance of winning and takes the same from Frosinone's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. Cagliari score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Serie A); Frosinone concede 1.4 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Frosinone
Cagliari LLLLD, lost 32 rating points; Frosinone WWDWL, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Frosinone
Bookmakers rate Frosinone higher than the model does: Cagliari 35% against the model's 39%, Frosinone 39% against 36%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Cagliari won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CagliariFrosinoneCagliari
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/19
10/24
10/27
11/01
Frosinone
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cagliari | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 25%3.95 | 6%15.72 | 3%29.94 |
| Level | 12%8.14 | 14%7.32 | 14%6.93 |
| Frosinone | 2%51.81 | 4%23.87 | 19%5.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cagliari wins1Frosinone wins- L Frosinone vs Cagliari 3-1
- W Cagliari vs Frosinone 4-3
- D Cagliari vs Frosinone 0-0
- D Frosinone vs Cagliari 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cagliari's side.