Milan
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.09
Frosinone
28%
Fair odds 3.55
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Milan | Draw | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Milan
Milan are rated 55 points above Frosinone (1575 to 1520), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Milan
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Milan's chance of winning and takes the same from Frosinone's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Milan
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. Milan score 1.3 a match against an average side (8th in Serie A); Frosinone concede 1.4 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Frosinone
Milan LWLWL, lost 22 rating points; Frosinone WWDWL, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MilanFrosinoneMilan
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/05
Frosinone
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Milan | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | 33%3.02 | 7%15.15 | 3%32.47 |
| Level | 13%7.53 | 13%7.87 | 12%8.47 |
| Frosinone | 2%50.25 | 4%26.60 | 14%7.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Milan wins0Frosinone wins- W Frosinone vs Milan 2-3
- W Milan vs Frosinone 3-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Milan's side.