Man City
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57
Fulham
15%
Fair odds 6.46
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Man City | Draw | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Man City
Man City are rated 163 points above Fulham (1710 to 1547), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Man City
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Man City's chance of winning and takes the same from Fulham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Man City
Expected goals 2.1 to 0.9. Man City score 2.2 a match against an average side (1st in Premier League); Fulham concede 1.0 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fulham
Man City WLLWW, barely moved; Fulham DWWLD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Man City
Man City won 8, drew 0 and lost 0 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Man CityFulhamMan City
7/10 over 2.5
25 scored
15 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Fulham
3/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
05/24
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Man City | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 39%2.59 | 4%26.53 | 1%97.09 |
| Level | 22%4.62 | 12%8.31 | 6%15.97 |
| Fulham | 4%27.40 | 4%22.94 | 9%11.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Man City wins0Fulham wins- W Man City vs Fulham 3-0
- W Fulham vs Man City 4-5
- W Fulham vs Man City 0-2
- W Man City vs Fulham 3-2
- W Fulham vs Man City 0-4
- W Man City vs Fulham 5-1
- W Fulham vs Man City 1-2
- W Man City vs Fulham 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Man City's side.