Eastleigh
36%
Fair odds 2.75
Fylde
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eastleigh | Draw | Fylde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fylde
Fylde are rated 46 points above Eastleigh (1051 to 1005), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eastleigh
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Eastleigh's chance of winning and takes the same from Fylde's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Eastleigh score 0.5 a match against an average side (23rd in National League); Fylde concede 3.2 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fylde
Eastleigh DLWLL, lost 10 rating points; Fylde WWLWL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Eastleigh won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EastleighFyldeEastleigh
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/28
10/31
Fylde
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eastleigh | Draw | Fylde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastleigh | 23%4.28 | 6%16.72 | 3%34.60 |
| Level | 12%8.57 | 14%6.92 | 14%7.04 |
| Fylde | 2%54.64 | 4%22.32 | 21%4.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Eastleigh wins1Fylde wins- D Fylde vs Eastleigh 2-2
- W Eastleigh vs Fylde 4-2
- L Eastleigh vs Fylde 1-2
- W Fylde vs Eastleigh 1-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Eastleigh's side.