Harrogate
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.55
Fylde
15%
Fair odds 6.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Harrogate | Draw | Fylde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 15% |
Team news
- Bryn Morris Out
- Tom Lees Out
- Grant Horton Out
- Will McGowan Doubtful
Harrogate Advertiser (4 Nov 2026) says McGowan is close to returning and that three other key men remain a long way off; Bailey Hobson's knee knock (reported about 26 days ago) was not confirmed as current, so I did not list him.
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension reports found for AFC Fylde; the Blackpool Gazette preview (4 Nov 2026) covers the manager's mindset but not fitness.
Allowing for this news: Harrogate 64%, draw 20%, Fylde 15% (xG 2.21 – 1.00). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: harrogateadvertiser.co.uk, blackpoolgazette.co.uk, statz.ai
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Harrogate
Harrogate are rated 102 points above Fylde (1153 to 1051), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Harrogate
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Harrogate's chance of winning and takes the same from Fylde's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Harrogate
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Harrogate score 0.7 a match against an average side (4th in National League); Fylde concede 3.2 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Harrogate DLWWW, gained 7 rating points; Fylde WWLWL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HarrogateFyldeHarrogate
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
14 conceded
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Fylde
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Harrogate | Draw | Fylde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate | 44%2.26 | 4%23.09 | 1%81.97 |
| Level | 18%5.61 | 11%9.06 | 6%16.64 |
| Fylde | 3%33.78 | 4%25.58 | 8%11.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Harrogate wins1Fylde wins- L Harrogate vs Fylde 1-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Harrogate's side.