Fylde
30%
Fair odds 3.30
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kidderminster | Draw | Fylde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fylde
Fylde are rated 11 points above Kidderminster (1051 to 1040), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kidderminster
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kidderminster's chance of winning and takes the same from Fylde's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kidderminster
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Kidderminster score 0.4 a match against an average side (24th in National League); Fylde concede 3.2 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fylde
Kidderminster LDLDD, lost 10 rating points; Fylde WWLWL, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
KidderminsterFylde
09/11
09/16
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Fylde
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kidderminster | Draw | Fylde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster | 26%3.84 | 5%22.03 | 1%76.34 |
| Level | 14%7.07 | 17%5.84 | 10%10.05 |
| Fylde | 2%47.62 | 5%18.87 | 20%5.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Fylde wins- D Kidderminster vs Fylde 1-1
- L Fylde vs Kidderminster 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kidderminster's side.