Degerfors
22%
Fair odds 4.65Bookmakers 32%
GAIS
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98Bookmakers 41%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Degerfors: 22% here, 32% with bookmakers; GAIS: 51% here, 41% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Degerfors | Draw | GAIS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 28% | 51% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Best price on offer | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours GAIS
GAIS are rated 151 points above Degerfors (1403 to 1252), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Degerfors
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Degerfors's chance of winning and takes the same from GAIS's.
-
Attack against defence Favours GAIS
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.5. Degerfors score 0.6 a match against an average side (18th in Allsvenskan); GAIS concede 1.4 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Degerfors LLLLD, lost 26 rating points; GAIS WWDLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Degerfors
Bookmakers rate Degerfors higher than the model does: Degerfors 32% against the model's 22%, GAIS 41% against 51%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours GAIS
Degerfors won 0, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DegerforsGAISDegerfors
4/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/28
11/01
GAIS
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Degerfors | Draw | GAIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors | 21%4.83 | 10%10.33 | 5%19.57 |
| Level | 1%87.72 | 17%5.98 | 21%4.70 |
| GAIS | 0%— | 1%— | 25%4.03 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Degerfors wins2GAIS wins- D GAIS vs Degerfors 1-1
- L Degerfors vs GAIS 0-3
- L GAIS vs Degerfors 2-0
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Degerfors's side.