Jagiellonia
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.56Bookmakers 43%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Jagiellonia | Draw | GKS Katowice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.15 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice are rated almost level (1401 and 1406).
-
Home advantage Favours Jagiellonia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Jagiellonia's chance of winning and takes the same from GKS Katowice's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.5. Jagiellonia score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Ekstraklasa); GKS Katowice concede 1.7 (7th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia LWWLL, lost 10 rating points; GKS Katowice WLLWW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia will have had 3 days' rest, GKS Katowice 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Jagiellonia
Bookmakers rate Jagiellonia higher than the model does: Jagiellonia 43% against the model's 39%, GKS Katowice 32% against 36%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Jagiellonia won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
JagielloniaGKS KatowiceJagiellonia
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Jagiellonia | Draw | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 26%3.85 | 6%15.70 | 3%31.35 |
| Level | 12%8.53 | 14%7.36 | 14%7.24 |
| GKS Katowice | 2%53.76 | 4%23.58 | 19%5.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Jagiellonia wins- D GKS Katowice vs Jagiellonia 2-2
- W Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice 2-1
- W Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice 1-0
- L GKS Katowice vs Jagiellonia 3-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Jagiellonia's side.