Scunthorpe
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.65
Gateshead
18%
Fair odds 5.57
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Scunthorpe | Draw | Gateshead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe are rated 84 points above Gateshead (1019 to 935), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Scunthorpe
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Scunthorpe's chance of winning and takes the same from Gateshead's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Scunthorpe
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.1. Scunthorpe score 0.5 a match against an average side (17th in National League); Gateshead concede 4.2 (27th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Gateshead
Scunthorpe LLLLL, lost 43 rating points; Gateshead LLLLL, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Scunthorpe won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ScunthorpeGatesheadScunthorpe
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
Gateshead
6/10 over 2.5
5 scored
26 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Scunthorpe | Draw | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | 37%2.67 | 3%29.94 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.17 | 12%8.53 | 5%18.69 |
| Gateshead | 4%23.87 | 6%17.83 | 12%8.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Scunthorpe wins2Gateshead wins- L Gateshead vs Scunthorpe 2-0
- W Scunthorpe vs Gateshead 2-0
- L Gateshead vs Scunthorpe 2-0
- W Scunthorpe vs Gateshead 3-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Scunthorpe's side.