Genclerbirligi
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Gaziantep
31%
Fair odds 3.18
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Genclerbirligi | Draw | Gaziantep | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Genclerbirligi
Genclerbirligi are rated 34 points above Gaziantep (1468 to 1434), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Genclerbirligi
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Genclerbirligi's chance of winning and takes the same from Gaziantep's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Genclerbirligi
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Genclerbirligi score 1.1 a match against an average side (13th in Süper Lig); Gaziantep concede 1.4 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Genclerbirligi
Genclerbirligi WLLDL, lost 6 rating points; Gaziantep LLLLL, lost 42 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GenclerbirligiGaziantepGenclerbirligi
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/02
Gaziantep
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
17 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Genclerbirligi | Draw | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | 25%4.05 | 5%21.37 | 2%55.56 |
| Level | 16%6.41 | 15%6.89 | 11%9.11 |
| Gaziantep | 3%34.01 | 6%17.89 | 19%5.22 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Genclerbirligi wins1Gaziantep wins- W Genclerbirligi vs Gaziantep 2-1
- L Gaziantep vs Genclerbirligi 2-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Genclerbirligi's side.