Besiktas
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.42Bookmakers 76%
Genclerbirligi
12%
Fair odds 8.24Bookmakers 9%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Besiktas | Draw | Genclerbirligi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 17% | 12% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Best price on offer | 1.25 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Besiktas
Besiktas are rated 128 points above Genclerbirligi (1596 to 1468), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Besiktas
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Besiktas's chance of winning and takes the same from Genclerbirligi's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Besiktas
Expected goals 2.5 to 1.0. Besiktas score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Süper Lig); Genclerbirligi concede 1.5 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Besiktas LDWDL, lost 11 rating points; Genclerbirligi WLLDL, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Genclerbirligi
Besiktas will have had 3 days' rest, Genclerbirligi 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Besiktas
Bookmakers rate Besiktas higher than the model does: Besiktas 76% against the model's 70%, Genclerbirligi 9% against 12%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BesiktasGenclerbirligiBesiktas
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
16 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Genclerbirligi
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 68%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Besiktas | Draw | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | 46%2.16 | 4%28.33 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.81 | 9%10.63 | 5%20.79 |
| Genclerbirligi | 4%26.18 | 4%26.53 | 7%15.04 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Besiktas wins1Genclerbirligi wins- W Genclerbirligi vs Besiktas 0-2
- L Besiktas vs Genclerbirligi 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Besiktas's side.