St. Gilloise
Model pick
69%
Fair odds 1.45Bookmakers 58%
Genk
12%
Fair odds 8.18Bookmakers 20%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. St. Gilloise: 69% here, 58% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St. Gilloise | Draw | Genk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Best price on offer | 1.63 | 4.25 | 5.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise are rated 140 points above Genk (1689 to 1549), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St. Gilloise
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to St. Gilloise's chance of winning and takes the same from Genk's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St. Gilloise
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.8. St. Gilloise score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Belgian Pro League); Genk concede 1.2 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise WWWWD, gained 9 rating points; Genk LWWLD, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Genk
St. Gilloise will have had 3 days' rest, Genk 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Genk
Bookmakers rate Genk higher than the model does: St. Gilloise 58% against the model's 69%, Genk 20% against 12%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise won 9, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St. GilloiseGenkSt. Gilloise
7/10 over 2.5
28 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Genk
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St. Gilloise | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise | 39%2.55 | 2%41.32 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%4.03 | 11%9.36 | 4%25.45 |
| Genk | 5%19.27 | 5%19.46 | 8%12.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
9St. Gilloise wins4Genk wins- W St. Gilloise vs Genk 2-1
- W Genk vs St. Gilloise 1-2
- W St. Gilloise vs Genk 1-0
- W Genk vs St. Gilloise 1-2
- L Genk vs St. Gilloise 2-1
- W St. Gilloise vs Genk 4-0
- W St. Gilloise vs Genk 2-0
- L Genk vs St. Gilloise 1-0
- W Genk vs St. Gilloise 0-1
- L St. Gilloise vs Genk 0-2
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from St. Gilloise's side.