Sassuolo
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.45
Genoa
33%
Fair odds 3.03
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sassuolo | Draw | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Genoa
Genoa are rated 21 points above Sassuolo (1474 to 1452), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sassuolo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sassuolo's chance of winning and takes the same from Genoa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sassuolo
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Sassuolo score 1.1 a match against an average side (14th in Serie A); Genoa concede 1.3 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Genoa
Sassuolo LLLLD, lost 40 rating points; Genoa WWWLW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Genoa
Sassuolo won 0, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SassuoloGenoaSassuolo
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
26 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/27
11/02
Genoa
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sassuolo | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 24%4.12 | 5%19.46 | 2%46.95 |
| Level | 15%6.84 | 15%6.68 | 12%8.11 |
| Genoa | 2%40.49 | 5%19.65 | 19%5.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sassuolo wins4Genoa wins- L Genoa vs Sassuolo 2-1
- L Sassuolo vs Genoa 1-2
- L Genoa vs Sassuolo 2-1
- L Sassuolo vs Genoa 1-2
- D Sassuolo vs Genoa 1-1
- D Genoa vs Sassuolo 2-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sassuolo's side.