Beveren
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Gent
35%
Fair odds 2.84
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Beveren | Draw | Gent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Gent
Gent are rated 76 points above Beveren (1550 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Beveren
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Beveren's chance of winning and takes the same from Gent's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Beveren score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Belgian Pro League); Gent concede 1.2 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Beveren LDLLW, lost 11 rating points; Gent DLWLW, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BeverenGentBeveren
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/24
10/31
Gent
3/10 over 2.5
14 scored
6 conceded
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Beveren | Draw | Gent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beveren | 23%4.35 | 5%20.08 | 2%51.02 |
| Level | 13%7.45 | 15%6.56 | 12%8.28 |
| Gent | 2%43.29 | 5%18.76 | 22%4.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.