Iberia 1999
35%
Fair odds 2.89
Getafe
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.74
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Iberia 1999 | Draw | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Getafe
Getafe are rated 105 points above Iberia 1999 (1447 to 1342), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Iberia 1999
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Iberia 1999's chance of winning and takes the same from Getafe's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.2. Iberia 1999 score 0.9 a match against an average side; Getafe concede 1.3 (13th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Iberia 1999
Iberia 1999 LDL, barely moved; Getafe LWLLD, lost 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Iberia 1999GetafeIberia 1999
1/3 over 2.5
2 scored
5 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
Getafe
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Iberia 1999 | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberia 1999 | 27%3.73 | 9%11.75 | 4%24.57 |
| Level | 8%12.89 | 17%5.86 | 18%5.64 |
| Getafe | 1%— | 2%44.44 | 15%6.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.