Villarreal
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.81Bookmakers 66%
Getafe
20%
Fair odds 4.93Bookmakers 13%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Villarreal: 55% here, 66% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Villarreal | Draw | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Best price on offer | 1.48 | 4.60 | 8.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Villarreal
Villarreal are rated 77 points above Getafe (1524 to 1447), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Villarreal
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Villarreal's chance of winning and takes the same from Getafe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Villarreal
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Villarreal score 1.4 a match against an average side (6th in La Liga); Getafe concede 1.3 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Villarreal LLWLD, lost 23 rating points; Getafe LWLLD, lost 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Villarreal
Getafe will have had 3 days' rest, Villarreal 5. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Villarreal
Bookmakers rate Villarreal higher than the model does: Villarreal 66% against the model's 55%, Getafe 13% against 20%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Villarreal
Villarreal won 5, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VillarrealGetafeVillarreal
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
Getafe
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Villarreal | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 37%2.72 | 5%19.34 | 2%64.10 |
| Level | 17%5.99 | 15%6.85 | 9%11.47 |
| Getafe | 2%46.95 | 4%25.84 | 10%9.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Villarreal wins1Getafe wins- L Getafe vs Villarreal 2-1
- W Villarreal vs Getafe 2-0
- W Getafe vs Villarreal 1-2
- D Villarreal vs Getafe 1-1
- D Villarreal vs Getafe 1-1
- D Getafe vs Villarreal 0-0
- W Villarreal vs Getafe 2-1
- D Getafe vs Villarreal 0-0
- W Getafe vs Villarreal 1-2
- W Villarreal vs Getafe 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Villarreal's side.