Santa Clara
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.15Bookmakers 42%
Gil Vicente
24%
Fair odds 4.14Bookmakers 28%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Santa Clara | Draw | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 29% | 24% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Best price on offer | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Santa Clara
Santa Clara are rated 18 points above Gil Vicente (1520 to 1502), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Santa Clara
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Santa Clara's chance of winning and takes the same from Gil Vicente's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Santa Clara
Expected goals 1.3 to 0.9. Santa Clara score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Primeira Liga); Gil Vicente concede 1.1 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Santa Clara WLWDW, gained 21 rating points; Gil Vicente DLWWD, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Gil Vicente
Bookmakers rate Gil Vicente higher than the model does: Santa Clara 42% against the model's 46%, Gil Vicente 28% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Santa Clara
Santa Clara won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Santa ClaraGil VicenteSanta Clara
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
6 conceded
08/10
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/26
11/01
Gil Vicente
2/10 over 2.5
8 scored
7 conceded
08/09
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/19
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 38%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Santa Clara | Draw | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 26%3.88 | 4%27.40 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.32 | 19%5.18 | 9%11.34 |
| Gil Vicente | 2%40.82 | 5%18.73 | 15%6.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Santa Clara wins2Gil Vicente wins- W Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente 1-0
- L Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara 1-0
- W Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara 0-1
- W Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente 2-1
- W Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente 3-2
- L Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara 1-0
- D Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara 2-2
- W Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Santa Clara's side.