Colchester
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.12
Gillingham
26%
Fair odds 3.87
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Colchester | Draw | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Colchester
Colchester are rated 13 points above Gillingham (1188 to 1174), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Colchester
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Colchester's chance of winning and takes the same from Gillingham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Colchester
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Colchester score 0.6 a match against an average side (21st in League Two); Gillingham concede 2.4 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Gillingham
Colchester LLDDL, lost 26 rating points; Gillingham WLDLW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Colchester won 3, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ColchesterGillinghamColchester
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Gillingham
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Colchester | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 29%3.47 | 5%19.69 | 2%58.14 |
| Level | 17%5.97 | 16%6.13 | 11%9.15 |
| Gillingham | 2%45.05 | 4%22.57 | 14%7.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Colchester wins2Gillingham wins- D Gillingham vs Colchester 1-1
- D Colchester vs Gillingham 0-0
- D Gillingham vs Colchester 1-1
- W Colchester vs Gillingham 2-0
- L Colchester vs Gillingham 0-1
- W Gillingham vs Colchester 0-3
- L Colchester vs Gillingham 0-2
- W Gillingham vs Colchester 0-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Colchester's side.