Oviedo
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.53
Girona
34%
Fair odds 2.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oviedo | Draw | Girona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Girona
Girona are rated 65 points above Oviedo (1468 to 1404), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oviedo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Oviedo's chance of winning and takes the same from Girona's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Oviedo score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in La Liga 2); Girona concede 1.3 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Oviedo LDWWL, barely moved; Girona LWWDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Oviedo won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
OviedoGironaOviedo
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
14 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/02
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/02
Girona
4/10 over 2.5
20 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/04
10/12
10/18
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oviedo | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 22%4.45 | 5%21.60 | 2%56.18 |
| Level | 15%6.69 | 15%6.48 | 12%8.48 |
| Girona | 3%37.59 | 6%17.86 | 21%4.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Oviedo wins1Girona wins- W Oviedo vs Girona 1-0
- D Girona vs Oviedo 3-3
- L Girona vs Oviedo 2-1
- D Oviedo vs Girona 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oviedo's side.