Excelsior
37%
Fair odds 2.67Bookmakers 35%
Go Ahead Eagles
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.57Bookmakers 40%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Excelsior | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.37 |
Team news
- Nesto Groen Out
A recent Dutch headline says Excelsior must do without a striker for this match, but the report gives no name or details, so it is not listed as an absence.
- Nick Marsman Out
- Pim Saathof Out
- Eus Waayers Out
Older 2025 reports listed Edvardsen and Tengstedt as out, but a recent prediction lists both in the starting XI, so they are not listed as absences.
Allowing for this news: Excelsior 37%, draw 24%, Go Ahead Eagles 40% (xG 1.67 – 1.74). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, pouletips.nl, fcupdate.nl, blessuresenschorsingen.nl
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles are rated 27 points above Excelsior (1458 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Excelsior
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Excelsior's chance of winning and takes the same from Go Ahead Eagles's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.7. Excelsior score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in Eredivisie); Go Ahead Eagles concede 1.7 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Go Ahead Eagles
Excelsior LLLLD, lost 47 rating points; Go Ahead Eagles LWLDD, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Excelsior 35%, Go Ahead Eagles 40%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Go Ahead Eagles
Excelsior won 1, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ExcelsiorGo Ahead EaglesExcelsior
9/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/15
08/29
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/25
11/01
Go Ahead Eagles
8/10 over 2.5
19 scored
26 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 63%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Excelsior | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 24%4.22 | 6%16.64 | 3%28.82 |
| Level | 12%8.49 | 12%8.24 | 14%7.16 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 2%42.55 | 5%21.23 | 22%4.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Excelsior wins4Go Ahead Eagles wins- L Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles 0-1
- L Go Ahead Eagles vs Excelsior 2-0
- L Go Ahead Eagles vs Excelsior 3-0
- D Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles 1-1
- W Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles 2-1
- L Go Ahead Eagles vs Excelsior 3-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Excelsior's side.