Hammarby
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.46
Goteborg
12%
Fair odds 8.44
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hammarby | Draw | Goteborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hammarby
Hammarby are rated 133 points above Goteborg (1514 to 1381), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hammarby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hammarby's chance of winning and takes the same from Goteborg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hammarby
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.8. Hammarby score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in Allsvenskan); Goteborg concede 1.7 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hammarby WWWWL, gained 17 rating points; Goteborg LDDDW, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Hammarby
Hammarby won 7, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HammarbyGoteborgHammarby
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Goteborg
3/10 over 2.5
14 scored
8 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hammarby | Draw | Goteborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby | 34%2.90 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.71 | 10%9.54 | 2%59.88 |
| Goteborg | 8%13.33 | 7%13.44 | 10%9.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Hammarby wins1Goteborg wins- W Goteborg vs Hammarby 0-1
- W Goteborg vs Hammarby 1-2
- W Hammarby vs Goteborg 4-0
- W Goteborg vs Hammarby 0-1
- L Hammarby vs Goteborg 0-1
- D Hammarby vs Goteborg 1-1
- D Goteborg vs Hammarby 1-1
- W Goteborg vs Hammarby 0-1
- W Hammarby vs Goteborg 3-0
- W Hammarby vs Goteborg 3-0
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hammarby's side.