Erzurumspor
33%
Fair odds 3.07
Goztep
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.41
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Erzurumspor | Draw | Goztep | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Goztep
Goztep are rated 51 points above Erzurumspor (1543 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Erzurumspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Erzurumspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Goztep's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Goztep
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Erzurumspor score 1.1 a match against an average side (12th in Süper Lig); Goztep concede 1.2 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Goztep
Erzurumspor LWWDW, gained 14 rating points; Goztep WWWWD, gained 42 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ErzurumsporGoztepErzurumspor
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
15 conceded
08/16
08/21
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Goztep
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
17 conceded
08/17
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Erzurumspor | Draw | Goztep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor | 19%5.17 | 5%18.52 | 3%36.36 |
| Level | 12%8.52 | 15%6.83 | 15%6.61 |
| Goztep | 2%50.51 | 5%20.49 | 24%4.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.