Sabadell
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.11
Granada
26%
Fair odds 3.78
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sabadell | Draw | Granada | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Granada
Granada are rated 21 points above Sabadell (1384 to 1363), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sabadell
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sabadell's chance of winning and takes the same from Granada's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sabadell
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Sabadell score 1.0 a match against an average side (12th in La Liga 2); Granada concede 1.6 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Granada
Sabadell LDLWD, lost 10 rating points; Granada WWWWW, gained 41 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SabadellGranadaSabadell
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Granada
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
09/26
10/12
10/18
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sabadell | Draw | Granada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell | 29%3.47 | 5%21.23 | 2%64.94 |
| Level | 17%6.05 | 15%6.55 | 10%10.17 |
| Granada | 3%37.59 | 5%19.69 | 16%6.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.