A. Lustenau
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31Bookmakers 34%
Grazer AK
32%
Fair odds 3.16Bookmakers 39%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. A. Lustenau: 43% here, 34% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| A. Lustenau | Draw | Grazer AK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Grazer AK
Grazer AK are rated 40 points above A. Lustenau (1296 to 1256), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours A. Lustenau
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to A. Lustenau's chance of winning and takes the same from Grazer AK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours A. Lustenau
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.4. A. Lustenau score 0.6 a match against an average side (12th in Austrian Bundesliga); Grazer AK concede 2.6 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
A. Lustenau LLLLW, lost 18 rating points; Grazer AK LDLDD, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Grazer AK
Bookmakers rate Grazer AK higher than the model does: A. Lustenau 34% against the model's 43%, Grazer AK 39% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
A. LustenauGrazer AKA. Lustenau
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
28 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Grazer AK
6/10 over 2.5
8 scored
24 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 0 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | A. Lustenau | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lustenau | 28%3.63 | 6%17.95 | 2%41.67 |
| Level | 14%7.22 | 14%7.35 | 12%8.58 |
| Grazer AK | 2%40.82 | 5%20.66 | 18%5.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0A. Lustenau wins1Grazer AK wins- L Grazer AK vs A. Lustenau 2-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from A. Lustenau's side.