Santos
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.74
Gremio
19%
Fair odds 5.27
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Santos | Draw | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Santos
Santos are rated 44 points above Gremio (1380 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Santos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Santos's chance of winning and takes the same from Gremio's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Santos
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Santos score 1.0 a match against an average side (4th in Brasileirão); Gremio concede 1.8 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Santos LDDWL, barely moved; Gremio WWLDD, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Santos won 2, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SantosGremioSantos
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/03
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/28
11/02
Gremio
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/30
09/08
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Santos | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 32%3.08 | 3%38.31 | 0%— |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 13%7.45 | 5%20.88 |
| Gremio | 5%21.79 | 7%15.02 | 14%7.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Santos wins3Gremio wins- L Gremio vs Santos 3-2
- D Santos vs Gremio 1-1
- L Gremio vs Santos 1-0
- W Santos vs Gremio 2-1
- L Gremio vs Santos 1-0
- W Santos vs Gremio 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Santos's side.