Nantes
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.62
Grenoble
16%
Fair odds 6.41
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nantes | Draw | Grenoble | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nantes
Nantes are rated 76 points above Grenoble (1381 to 1304), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nantes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Nantes's chance of winning and takes the same from Grenoble's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nantes
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.8. Nantes score 1.0 a match against an average side (10th in Ligue 2); Grenoble concede 1.9 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nantes
Nantes DLLDW, lost 12 rating points; Grenoble LLLLD, lost 42 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
NantesGrenobleNantes
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Grenoble
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nantes | Draw | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes | 38%2.62 | 4%26.25 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.78 | 14%7.19 | 6%15.62 |
| Grenoble | 3%33.90 | 4%23.64 | 9%11.47 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.