Dresden
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.11Bookmakers 48%
Greuther Furth
28%
Fair odds 3.56Bookmakers 26%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dresden | Draw | Greuther Furth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.96 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Dresden and Greuther Furth are rated almost level (1316 and 1310).
-
Home advantage Favours Dresden
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dresden's chance of winning and takes the same from Greuther Furth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dresden
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. Dresden score 0.9 a match against an average side (15th in 2. Bundesliga); Greuther Furth concede 1.9 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Dresden LLWDL, lost 10 rating points; Greuther Furth WLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Dresden 48%, Greuther Furth 26%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DresdenGreuther FurthDresden
7/10 over 2.5
12 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Greuther Furth
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dresden | Draw | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 31%3.22 | 6%17.30 | 2%41.84 |
| Level | 14%6.94 | 13%7.45 | 11%9.09 |
| Greuther Furth | 2%42.55 | 4%22.68 | 15%6.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Dresden wins1Greuther Furth wins- W Dresden vs Greuther Furth 2-0
- L Greuther Furth vs Dresden 3-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Dresden's side.