Hannover
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.93
Greuther Furth
25%
Fair odds 4.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hannover | Draw | Greuther Furth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hannover
Hannover are rated 65 points above Greuther Furth (1376 to 1310), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hannover
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hannover's chance of winning and takes the same from Greuther Furth's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hannover
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Hannover score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in 2. Bundesliga); Greuther Furth concede 1.9 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hannover WLDLW, lost 16 rating points; Greuther Furth WLWLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Hannover won 3, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HannoverGreuther FurthHannover
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Greuther Furth
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hannover | Draw | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover | 34%2.97 | 5%18.80 | 2%49.26 |
| Level | 16%6.32 | 13%7.82 | 10%10.50 |
| Greuther Furth | 3%36.23 | 5%22.03 | 14%7.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Hannover wins2Greuther Furth wins- L Hannover vs Greuther Furth 1-2
- D Greuther Furth vs Hannover 2-2
- D Hannover vs Greuther Furth 1-1
- L Greuther Furth vs Hannover 1-0
- W Hannover vs Greuther Furth 2-1
- W Greuther Furth vs Hannover 1-3
- D Greuther Furth vs Hannover 1-1
- W Hannover vs Greuther Furth 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hannover's side.