Swindon
26%
Fair odds 3.86
Grimsby
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Swindon | Draw | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Grimsby
Grimsby are rated 32 points above Swindon (1254 to 1222), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Swindon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Swindon's chance of winning and takes the same from Grimsby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Grimsby
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.7. Swindon score 0.6 a match against an average side (20th in League Two); Grimsby concede 1.8 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Swindon WDWDL, gained 15 rating points; Grimsby WWDLL, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Swindon
Swindon won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SwindonGrimsbySwindon
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Grimsby
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Swindon | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 17%6.02 | 6%16.34 | 4%26.25 |
| Level | 9%11.70 | 14%7.00 | 19%5.33 |
| Grimsby | 1%84.03 | 4%26.11 | 27%3.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Swindon wins2Grimsby wins- L Grimsby vs Swindon 4-0
- D Swindon vs Grimsby 2-2
- W Grimsby vs Swindon 0-4
- W Swindon vs Grimsby 3-1
- L Grimsby vs Swindon 2-0
- W Swindon vs Grimsby 2-1
- W Swindon vs Grimsby 5-0
- W Grimsby vs Swindon 1-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Swindon's side.