AZ Alkmaar
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.72Bookmakers 61%
Groningen
20%
Fair odds 4.98Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.55 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar are rated 44 points above Groningen (1545 to 1501), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AZ Alkmaar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to AZ Alkmaar's chance of winning and takes the same from Groningen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AZ Alkmaar
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.2. AZ Alkmaar score 1.5 a match against an average side (5th in Eredivisie); Groningen concede 1.4 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Groningen
AZ Alkmaar LLLWD, lost 20 rating points; Groningen LDLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Groningen
AZ Alkmaar will have had 3 days' rest, Groningen 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours AZ Alkmaar
Bookmakers rate AZ Alkmaar higher than the model does: AZ Alkmaar 61% against the model's 58%, Groningen 18% against 20%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AZ AlkmaarGroningenAZ Alkmaar
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Groningen
9/10 over 2.5
24 scored
23 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 67%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 35%2.82 | 4%25.58 | 1%83.33 |
| Level | 19%5.23 | 12%8.67 | 7%14.88 |
| Groningen | 4%23.98 | 5%18.59 | 13%7.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5AZ Alkmaar wins2Groningen wins- L Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar 3-0
- W AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen 4-1
- W AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen 3-0
- D Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar 0-0
- W AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen 1-0
- W Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar 1-4
- W AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen 1-0
- L Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar 2-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from AZ Alkmaar's side.